Bitcoin’s Future: The Convergence and Beyond

Bitcoin's explosive rise has already made headlines — but I believe the most significant chapter is still unwritten. Here's why.

🟡 Phase 1: Catching Up to Gold

Bitcoin is currently in what I call the convergence phase — the race to match or exceed gold’s ~$15 trillion market cap. As of June 2025, Bitcoin has reached roughly $1.5 trillion, depending on price. That’s only ~10% of gold’s market size.

Gold is ancient, inert, and scarce. Bitcoin is scarce and programmable, portable, easily verifiable, and borderless. Its utility is greater — and once markets fully digest that, parity with gold is not a matter of if, but when.

📈 Phase 2: Real Utility Phase

Once Bitcoin matches gold, its price will no longer be driven by speculation or narrative. It will enter a utility-driven phase, where people:

  • Hold BTC as sovereign savings
  • Settle international trade using BTC
  • Use it as a long-term hedge against fiat debasement

In that phase, the price will likely grow 5–12% annually, not from hype, but from:

  • global GDP inflation
  • continued adoption by institutions
  • population-weighted monetary demand (especially in the Global South)

Think of it like the S&P500 post-internet boom: slower but steady growth, backed by fundamentals.

🔁 The Halving Cycle Continues

Every ~4 years, the Bitcoin supply issuance is cut in half. This structural scarcity mechanism, combined with increasing demand, creates a self-reinforcing flywheel:

  • Lower supply → narrative + demand spike
  • Price rise → new participants → institutional flows

It’s not just history repeating — it’s engineered. This makes Bitcoin the only asset with a fixed supply and a growing global audience.

🧠 Long-Term Thinking

Buying Bitcoin today is like buying internet protocols in 1996 — but with a hard cap and no company controlling it. As long as you have a time horizon of 10+ years, the upside is asymmetric.

📚 References

Bitcoin isn’t just an asset — it’s a global monetary revolution with mathematical certainty. Don’t bet against it. Plan around it.